West Kelowna Real Estate News!
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Quarterly Forecasts
CREA NewsCREA Updates Resale Housing Market Forecast
Ottawa, ON, June 14, 2019 – The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations in 2019 and 2020.
Many of the economic fundamentals that support housing activity remain strong outside of the Prairies as well as Newfoundland and Labrador. Following the release of CREA’s previous forecast in March, population and employment growth has remained strong and the unemployment rate has fallen further. Additionally, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to not raise interest rates over the rest of the year.
Budget 2019 also raised the maximum individual withdrawal limit under the Home Buyers’ Plan (HBP) from $25,000 to $35,000 and introduced the First Time Homebuyer Incentive, a shared equity program whereby the federal government finances a portion of a home purchase in exchange for an equity share in the home’s value. The increased HBP withdrawal limit took effect in late March, while the First Time Homebuyer Incentive is slated to launch in September.
These factors are expected to support to the beginnings of a recovery in home sales over the second half of 2019 after starting this year on a weak footing. Nonetheless, the overall level of sales is expected to remain well below where it was in recent years, as successive policy changes – most notably the implementation of the B-20 stress test – continue to limit access to mortgage financing and dampen housing market sentiment. This is particularly the case in pricier areas where younger buyers have had little choice but to borrow more to get into the market.
National home sales are now projected to edge up 1.2% to 463,000 units in 2019. CREA’s previous forecast estimated a decline of 1.6% this year. This would still leave annual sales below the 10-year average and a far cry from the annual record set in 2016, when almost 540,000 homes traded hands. On a per capita basis, the forecast for 2019 would remain effectively tied with 2018 for the weakest year since 2001.
British Columbia is the only province expected to weigh materially on national figures in 2019, with a decline of 13.3% compared to 2018, marking a small upward revision from the previously forecast decline of 14.9%. Other revisions from the previous forecast for sales in 2019 were also upward, with Alberta moving from a 5.6% decline to a 0.9% decline, and Ontario’s gain upgraded from 0.9% previously to 3.9%.
Quebec and New Brunswick are still forecast to see the biggest sales gains in percentage terms in 2019 (+7.7% and +10.6%, respectively), with both provinces on track to set new annual records. Sales in Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador are forecast to improve by almost 5%, albeit from the lowest levels in more than a decade recorded last year. Meanwhile, activity in Manitoba and Nova Scotia is forecast to rise between 3.5% and 4.5% to near-record annual levels.
The national average price is still projected to stabilize (-0.6%) at around $485,000 in 2019 following the 4.1% drop recorded in 2018, which was the largest in almost 25 years. This reflects a stark and growing split between Eastern and Western regions. In line with the balance between supply and demand across the country, average prices are forecast to fall in 2019 in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and rise in Ontario, Quebec and the Maritimes. The average price is also expected to fall for the fifth consecutive year in Newfoundland and Labrador.
Sales are forecast to continue to improve in 2020. Absent the weak start experienced in 2019, national home sales are forecast to rise 4.4% to 483,200 units as interest rates remain near current levels and potential home buyers continue to adjust and adapt to the assortment of recent policy changes. Almost all provinces are forecast to see more sales in 2020 compared to 2019, with gains ranging from 1% to 6%.
That said, the big picture is that sales are expected to remain historically weak in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, historically strong in Quebec, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Nova Scotia, and come in close to the 10-year average in Ontario.
The national average price is forecast to edge up by 0.9% to around $490,000 in 2020. Average price trends across Canada in 2020 are generally expected to be more moderate versions of those in 2019, with small declines in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland and Labrador, and modest gains in all provinces from Manitoba through the Maritimes.
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About The Canadian Real Estate Association
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations. CREA works on behalf of more than 130,000 REALTORS® who contribute to the economic and social well-being of communities across Canada. Together they advocate for property owners, buyers and sellers.
For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca
Canadian home sales rise in April 2019
CREA NewsOttawa, ON, May 15, 2019 – Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales climbed in April 2019.
Highlights:
April sales were up in about 60% of all local markets, with the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) accounting for over half of the national gain.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity was up 4.2% y-o-y in April (albeit from a seven-year low for the month in 2018), the first y-o-y gain since December 2017 and the largest in more than two years. The increase reflects gains in the GTA and Montreal that outweighed declines in the B.C. Lower Mainland.
“Housing market trends are improving in some places and not so much in others,” said Jason Stephen, CREA’s President. “All real estate is local. No matter where you are, a professional REALTOR® is your best source for information and guidance in negotiations to purchase or sell a home during these changing times,” said Stephen.
“Sales activity is stabilizing among Canada’s five most active urban housing markets,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “That list no longer includes Greater Vancouver, which fell out of the top-five list for the first time since the recession and is well into buyers’ market territory. Sales there are still trending lower as buyers adjust to a cocktail of housing affordability challenges, reduced access to financing due to the mortgage stress-test and housing policy changes implemented by British Columbia’s provincial government,” said Klump.
The number of newly listed homes rose 2.7% in April, building on March’s 3.4% increase. New supply rose in about 60% of all local markets, led by the GTA and Ottawa.
With sales up by more than new listings in April, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened marginally to 54.8% from 54.3% in March. This measure of market balance has remained close to its long-term average of 53.5% since early 2018.
Considering the degree and duration to which market balance readings are above or below their long-term averages is the best way of gauging whether local housing market conditions favour buyers or sellers. Market balance measures that are within one standard deviation of their long-term average are generally consistent with balanced market conditions.
Based on a comparison of the sales-to-new listings ratio with the long-term average, about three-quarters of all local markets were in balanced market territory in April 2019.
The number of months of inventory is another important measure of the balance between sales and the supply of listings. It represents how long it would take to liquidate current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.
There were 5.3 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of April 2019, down from 5.6 and 5.5 months in February and March respectively and in line with the long-term average for this measure.
Housing market balance varies significantly by region. The number of months of inventory has swollen far beyond long-term averages in Prairie provinces and Newfoundland & Labrador, giving homebuyers there ample choice. By contrast, the measure remains well below long-term averages in Ontario and Maritime provinces, resulting in increased competition among buyers for listings and fertile ground for price gains.
The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) appears to be stabilizing, having edged lower by 0.3% y-o-y in April 2019. (Chart B)
Among benchmark property categories tracked by the index, apartment units were again the only one to post a y-o-y price gain in April 2019 (0.5%), while two-storey single-family home and townhouse/row unit prices were little changed from April 2018 (-0.3% and -0.2%, respectively). By comparison, one-storey single-family home prices were down by -1.4% y-o-y.
Trends continue to vary widely among the 18 housing markets tracked by the MLS® HPI. Results remain mixed in British Columbia, with prices down on a y-o-y basis in Greater Vancouver (GVA; -8.5%) and the Fraser Valley (-4.6%), up slightly in the Okanagan Valley (1%) and Victoria (0.7%), while climbing 6.2% elsewhere on Vancouver Island.
Among Greater Golden Horseshoe housing markets tracked by the index, MLS® HPI benchmark home prices were up from year-ago levels in the Niagara Region (6.2%), Guelph (5.1%), Hamilton-Burlington (4.6%) the GTA (3.2%) and Oakville-Milton (2.5%). By contrast, home prices in Barrie and District held below year-ago levels (-5.3%).
Across the Prairies, supply remains historically elevated relative to sales and home prices remain below year-ago levels. Benchmark prices were down by 4.6% in Calgary, 4% in Edmonton, 4.3% in Regina and 1.7% in Saskatoon. The home pricing environment will likely remain weak in these cities until demand and supply return to better balance.
The MLS® HPI provides the best way to gauge price trends, as averages are strongly distorted by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in April 2019 was close to $495,000, up 0.3% from the same month in 2018.
The national average price is heavily skewed by sales in the GVA and GTA, two of Canada’s most expensive housing markets. Excluding these two
markets from calculations cuts almost $104,000 from the national average price, trimming it to just over $391,000.
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PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national sales information from MLS® Systems from the previous month.
CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.
MLS® Systems are co-operative marketing systems used only by Canada’s real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada’s largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 130,000 REALTORS® working through 90 real estate boards and associations.
Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.
For more information, please contact:
Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca
CREA supports efforts to crack down on money laundering
CREA NewsOttawa, ON, May 14, 2019 — Recent reports highlight real estate in Canada can be a haven for money launderers due to its stability and value. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) fully supports governments’ efforts to crack down on money laundering.
CREA would like to underscore the British Columbia Real Estate Association’s position, “real estate transactions are complicated and don’t just involve REALTORS®.” While REALTORS® work to fulfil their obligations, other parties involved in real estate also play a role. Layering illicit funds within a transaction can be done in different, complex ways and is not easily identified. For example, “For sale by owner” and lawyers aren’t required to comply with the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) regulations.
REALTORS® work to help Canadians achieve their homeownership aspirations, and we agree this issue must be addressed to limit the possible impact on market prices and housing affordability. The anonymity of real estate transactions opens the opportunity for illegal activity, and its critical reporting entities have access to the tools required to gain visibility into these transactions. For example, a publicly accessible registry with beneficial ownership information for corporations would allow reporting entities to remove the anonymity and invisibility within certain transactions and potentially link activities to possible corruption.
CREA continues to work closely with FINTRAC to support REALTORS® by providing tools and resources to assist in complying with requirements of Canada’s Proceeds of Crime (Money Laundering) and Terrorist Financing Act (PCMLTFA) and regulations.